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UmbrellaX markets

Trending

Binary trending markets. The pool—not a market maker—sets the final odds.

Will Bitcoin trade above $150,000 before 2027?Crypto

Above $150K60.8%1.63×Not above $150K39.2%2.52×

$720.2K poolDec 31Open 1842

Will an open-source model lead the frontier AI index in September?Tech

Open-source25.3%3.88×Closed-source74.7%1.33×

$660.1K poolSep 30Open 927

Will the EU approve the Digital Markets amendment this month?Politics

Approved56.8%1.74×Not approved43.2%2.29×

$173.1K poolSep 30Closing 463

Will the September reusable orbital launch complete successfully?Tech

Successful73.1%1.36×Unsuccessful26.9%3.67×

$295.7K poolSep 18Open 718

Real Madrid vs Liverpool — who wins in regulation?Sports

Real Madrid47.9%2.07×Liverpool52.1%1.90×

$270.9K poolSep 12Open 1209

Will 2026 become the warmest year on record?World

New record35.3%2.79×No new record64.7%1.54×

$165.3K poolJan 20Open 384

Will the central bank cut its policy rate at the next meeting?Economy

FormingOdds appear after both sides receive a stake.

$14 poolOct 2Forming 86

Will the summer box office exceed the five-year record?Culture

Exceeds record51.6%1.92×Below record48.4%2.05×

$139.2K poolSep 21Open 302

Will the national privacy bill be signed before October?New

Signed52.7%1.88×Not signed47.3%2.09×

$40 poolSep 30Open 64

Did the lunar mission launch inside its published window?Tech

Launched57.2%1.73×Did not launch42.8%2.31×

$114.1K poolSep 4Closed 218

Was the ocean treaty ratified by the required member threshold?World

Threshold reached67.5%1.47×Below threshold32.5%3.04×

$122K poolSep 4Pending result 341

Did the open-data charter receive final approval?Politics

Approved65.3%1.52×Not approved34.7%2.85×

$176.8K poolSep 3Claim 552

Northbridge vs Lakeside — who wins in regulation?Sports

FormingOdds appear after both sides receive a stake.

$28.4K poolSep 2Cancelled 119